The Family Firm Blog

Inflation is accelerating for most non-energy items

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 9/13/22 4:50 PM

Today's CPI report shows that inflation - despite the respite from gasoline and other commodities - has become more widespread and is actually accelerating for most non-energy items.

As I have been noting recently, the Fed's efforts to restrain the economy have shown no results yet - with the exception of a pause/minor retreat in the house price boom - and as a result, volatility (which equals uncertainty, not declines!!) will rule and investors will have to come to grips with that for the near-term future.

It's clear from all the happy talk I keep reading in the WSJ and from other cheerleaders that the reality of the inflation struggle hasn't yet been internalized in the investing environment..

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Europe's dire energy situation will continue to affect American consumers of natural gas.

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 8/19/22 4:54 PM

IIt truly is a globalized world. Europe's dire energy situation will continue to affect American consumers of natural gas. American exports of LNG will continue at the current elevated rate with little reason for optimism surrounding the European security environment. And thus, natural gas prices here in the US will stay high, and could potentially increase further depending on the weather and geopolitical developments.

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Audio from our July 14, 2022 Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 7/19/22 10:01 AM

For those of you that were unable to join us last Thursday night, please click on our logo to the right or HERE  to listen to our investment conference call where we discuss inflation, employment, recession fears, the federal reserve and what this all may mean for our portfolios. 

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Year in Review – Twelve Months Ending June 30, 2022

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 7/1/22 10:06 AM

Year in Review –  Twelve Months Ending June 30, 2022 

As much of the world adapted to and then attempted to move past the pandemic, policymakers and investors were left to ponder the economic impacts of the global tragedy. In some cases, the governmental efforts to combat the pandemic worked all too well. Demand exceeded supply for numerous commodities, goods, and labor, leading to an inflationary surge that rattled the Federal Reserve as well as markets.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine immediately placed further pressure on prices as well as depressing consumer confidence. Worries about recession came to the forefront in spring, rattling markets severely. As stagflation became one of the most searched words on Google, even well-diversified investors were left reeling.

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Audio from our May 3, 2022 Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 5/5/22 4:47 PM

For those of you that were unable to join us Tuesday night,  please click the Play button below to listen to our investment conference call where we discuss potential paths for interest rates and the effects on housing and investment portfolios. 

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Audio from our February 10, 2022 Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 2/11/22 4:48 PM

For those of you that were unable to join us last night,  please click the Play button below to listen to our investment conference call where we discuss the recent high rate of inflation and how this may affect the economy and our portfolios.

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Year in Review – 2021

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 1/21/22 10:57 AM

Year in Review – 2021

Despite the desire to leave the pandemic behind, it continued to permeate virtually every aspect of our lives. Individuals, businesses, and governments strove throughout the year to adapt to changing circumstances. Investors were also forced to ponder the effects of the pandemic and to contemplate the ultimate effects on society and finance.

Governments continued to spend lavishly to ameliorate the economic suffering. The Federal Reserve maintained its zero percent interest rate policy and flooded the economy with liquidity. The twin efforts were probably most responsible for the strong moves in investment markets. In addition to the tangible impacts, Federal Reserve pronouncements and policies sent investor confidence soaring to stratospheric levels.

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The economy gained 6.5 million jobs in 2021 - by far the most on record.

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 1/14/22 11:06 AM

Lost in all the doom and gloom about the recent spurt in inflation is an emphasis on the most impactful cause:

The economy gained 6.5 million jobs in 2021 - by far the most on record. The unemployment rate plummeted, much faster than had been anticipated. And so yes, the economy recovered faster than was anticipated and some shortages developed. Including most importantly, of labor.

And yet despite the elevated inflation readings, interest rates have remained stunningly low, supporting the financial markets as we see every day.

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The OECD predicts inflation of over 4% in the US - in 2022

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 12/24/21 11:10 AM

Gradually, the economic gurus are coming to admit that calling inflation "transitory" was mistaken/misleading. The OECD is now predicting inflation of over 4% in the US - in 2022!!. No policymaker could credibly still categorize a 2 year spurt in inflation transitory.

The fact that predictions and forecasts made now are pre-omicron does not change the overall trajectory and the sense of alarm investors should be feeling now.

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Manufacturing sector of the economy is booming

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 11/2/21 4:49 PM

Despite the incessant and excessive hype concerning supply chains, the simple fact is that the manufacturing sector of the economy is booming. Perhaps it has called a bit over the past year, but still....these are good times and the pundits will have to search harder for reasons for despair.

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