The Family Firm Blog

Nate Gendelman

Nate Gendelman

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Year in Review – Twelve Months ended March 31st, 2021

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 4/14/21 2:28 PM

Year in Review – Twelve Months ended March 31st, 2021

The pandemic had momentous impacts on every aspect of our lives. In addition to the tragic human toll taken by the virus, the economic and financial effects were felt throughout the year, and will be for many years to come.

The virus and the lockdowns produced a stunning economic collapse in spring 2020. The nosedive led to numerous governmental responses. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates and flooded the economy with liquidity. Additionally, the fiscal response was breathtaking in its magnitude and scope. Although most of the measures were ostensibly taken to support the economy, in the end the greater effect was on the financial markets. Government support and Fed policy probably had more influence on asset prices than factors such as economic health, corporate developments, or the elections.

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Longer Term Interest Rates Continue to Surge

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/26/21 4:06 PM

With longer term interest rates continuing their surge (the ten year Treasury now over 1.7%) market participants are clearly saying they don't believe the central bankers. Is there anything the Fed and others can do to restrain the rise in rates?

My suggestion: Take the risk of inflation seriously!!

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Audio from our March 24 Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/25/21 3:56 PM

For those of you that were unable to join us last night,  please click the Play button below to listen to our investment conference call where we outline four potential economic scenarios that could emerge as the impact of COVID 19 begins to fade. 

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Startling Impact of the Coronavirus

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/18/21 1:17 PM

A startling impact of the coronavirus on the world has been a dramatic drop of population growth and fertility. Japan had the fewest number of babies in its recorded history, and in Taiwan an already low fertility rate has fallen below 1 (!).

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Today's Job Report

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/5/21 1:15 PM

Today's job report (~450K new jobs) shows that when/as the economy reopens the employment situation will recover relatively quickly. That also demonstrates quite clearly that the government's laser-focus on taming the virus is the correct approach, even if one can quibble about the details.

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Year in Review – 2020

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 1/7/21 2:07 PM

Year in Review – 2020

 Given the monumental impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is virtually impossible to discuss the twelve-month period as a continuous one. It’s more sensible to think about the world before COVID-19 (to be referred herein as BCV) and after (ACV). For our purposes here, we will define that demarcation point as the middle of February, when investors woke up to the cataclysmic impact the disease would have on the economy. There is little one could say about BCV that would be applicable to ACV.

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Audio from our November 19th Post 2020 Election Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 11/23/20 4:29 PM

For those of you that were unable to join us last Wednesday Night,  please click the Play button below to listen to our November 19 investment conference call. 

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Audio from our September 2, 2020 Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 9/3/20 3:25 PM

For those of you that were unable to join us last Night, please click the Play button below to listen to our September 2, investment conference call. 

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Emerging Market Currencies Strengthening

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 6/5/20 4:28 PM

As confidence in an (eventual) economic recovery continues to spread through financial markets, several of the biggest beneficiaries have been some emerging market currencies. Among those that have spurted higher lately include Brazil and Mexico, although still far down year to date. And important to note that although financial conditions have strengthened for Latin America, the economic conditions on the ground have yet to show any improvement and remain dismal.

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The global economy is expected to contract by 3% in 2020.

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 5/22/20 4:36 PM

New reports from the IMF makes for grim reading.
The global economy is expected to contract by 3% in 2020.
Perhaps even scarier is the accumulation of unprecedented debts. The world's fiscal debt level will climb from 83% of GDP to 96%. The situation is even worse for developed countries as governmental debt will reach 122% of GDP.

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