The Family Firm Blog

Recent economic data are moderately encouraging

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 10/4/21 4:51 PM

Recent economic data are moderately encouraging from the stock/bond perspective. Consumer spending is still fairly strong, although moderating....and ditto for inflation.

It still is possible that when/if? the virus recedes in the coming weeks, consumer spending will surge as it did earlier this year. However, to me, this seems unlikely.

The impetus from the federal government will lessen significantly. It also seems reasonable to me that many, after seeing the over-promising of "life-to-normal" as a result of vaccines, will adopt more of a wait-and-see approach this time around.

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Home prices surge over 14% from last year

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 7/1/21 5:06 PM

Fueled by low interest rates and scant supply, the price of homes continues to surge. The rise of 14.6% over the year ended April marks the highest price rise since the S&P Case-Shiller index began 34 years ago.

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Year in Review – Twelve Months ended March 31st, 2021

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 4/14/21 2:28 PM

Year in Review – Twelve Months ended March 31st, 2021

The pandemic had momentous impacts on every aspect of our lives. In addition to the tragic human toll taken by the virus, the economic and financial effects were felt throughout the year, and will be for many years to come.

The virus and the lockdowns produced a stunning economic collapse in spring 2020. The nosedive led to numerous governmental responses. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates and flooded the economy with liquidity. Additionally, the fiscal response was breathtaking in its magnitude and scope. Although most of the measures were ostensibly taken to support the economy, in the end the greater effect was on the financial markets. Government support and Fed policy probably had more influence on asset prices than factors such as economic health, corporate developments, or the elections.

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Find Your Unclaimed Property

Posted by Adam Van Deusen on 4/7/21 12:59 PM

Find Your Unclaimed Property

Are you the kind of person who likes finding coins in the couch cushions? Or do you have a feeling you had an account in the past but can’t quite remember what happened to it? If so, then you might want to check out your state’s unclaimed property database.

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Longer Term Interest Rates Continue to Surge

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/26/21 4:06 PM

With longer term interest rates continuing their surge (the ten year Treasury now over 1.7%) market participants are clearly saying they don't believe the central bankers. Is there anything the Fed and others can do to restrain the rise in rates?

My suggestion: Take the risk of inflation seriously!!

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Audio from our March 24 Investment Conference Call

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/25/21 3:56 PM

For those of you that were unable to join us last night,  please click the Play button below to listen to our investment conference call where we outline four potential economic scenarios that could emerge as the impact of COVID 19 begins to fade. 

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Startling Impact of the Coronavirus

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/18/21 1:17 PM

A startling impact of the coronavirus on the world has been a dramatic drop of population growth and fertility. Japan had the fewest number of babies in its recorded history, and in Taiwan an already low fertility rate has fallen below 1 (!).

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Today's Job Report

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 3/5/21 1:15 PM

Today's job report (~450K new jobs) shows that when/as the economy reopens the employment situation will recover relatively quickly. That also demonstrates quite clearly that the government's laser-focus on taming the virus is the correct approach, even if one can quibble about the details.

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New Year’s Financial Resolutions

Posted by Adam Van Deusen on 1/8/21 1:00 PM

New Year’s Financial Resolutions

Did you make a New Year’s resolution this year? Maybe you want to exercise more or reconnect with old friends. For many people, getting their finances in order is a top priority. Here are some actions you can take to get a better handle on your finances in 2021:

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Year in Review – 2020

Posted by Nate Gendelman on 1/7/21 2:07 PM

Year in Review – 2020

 Given the monumental impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is virtually impossible to discuss the twelve-month period as a continuous one. It’s more sensible to think about the world before COVID-19 (to be referred herein as BCV) and after (ACV). For our purposes here, we will define that demarcation point as the middle of February, when investors woke up to the cataclysmic impact the disease would have on the economy. There is little one could say about BCV that would be applicable to ACV.

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